马刺中文论坛
用户名 忘了密码?
密码 注册

马刺中文论坛 » 环球刺讯 » John Hollinger 对每个球员的分析和预测

 
主题工具
 2007-10-21 15:43  #1
管理员
 
加入日期: 2004-04-25
帖子: 4429
现金: 40 盾
香瓜 荣获 2005-06 Fantasy NBA ChinaSpurs 联赛第13名
John Hollinger 对每个球员的分析和预测

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/players/hollinger?statsId=3017

#17 Brent Barry | G
Spurs Roster:

<a target=Brent Barry" onerror="function anonymous()
{
loadDefaultHS('HeadShot');
}" src="http://assets.espn.go.com/i/nba/profiles/players/65x90/3017.jpg" width="65" />
Born: December 31, 1971
Hempstead, NY
Height: 6-7
Weight: 210 lbs.
Age: 35
Pos: G
College: Oregon State
Drafted: 1995, 1st round, 15th pick by Nuggets
2008 Salary: $5,544,370
FANTASY
Percent Owned (Week +/-):
NBA: 0.0% (0.0%)
Avg. Draft Position:
NBA: 0.0
PPG 8.5 | APG 1.8 | 3P% .446
Status Alert: Barry's offseason has had a big impact on what has been to this point an excellent camp, the San Antonio Express-News reports. (Oct 12)

Hollinger Player Profile | Stats Key
SEASONFG%FT%P/40R/40A/40TS%AstTOUsgRebPER
2002-03.458.79512.54.96.259.732.712.115.37.115.87
2003-04.504.82714.14.57.666.835.814.516.16.718.34
2004-05.423.83713.84.44.158.023.48.415.16.414.04
2005-06.452.66113.75.13.958.122.59.515.17.514.92
2006-07.475.88015.63.93.466.620.49.014.75.916.65
2007-08 (projected).432.74314.14.23.759.9421.989.1614.086.2914.43

2006-07 season: Barry went back to a familiar position last year -- leading the league in true shooting percentage. He led the league twice as a Sonic and finished second one other time, but since coming to San Antonio his numbers in this category had been, by his exalted standards, rather ordinary. That wasn't the case last season. Barry shot a sizzling 44.6 percent on 3-pointers, and he took a lot of them -- nearly four a game, or about one for every six minutes he was on the court.


TS% leaders, 2006-07
PlayerTeam TS%
Brent Barry Sas66.6
Steve Nash Pho65.4
David Lee NY65.2
Erick DampierDal64.2
Mikki Moore NJ63.7


Additionally, Barry had the highest rate of 3-pointers to 2-pointers in the league. Just over two-thirds of his shot attempts were triples, a higher rate even than Cleveland's absurdly one-dimensional Damon Jones. Since making 44.6 percent on 3s is like making 66.9 percent on 2s, and those comprised most of Barry's shots, it's easy to see how his TS% was so good. Barry also made half his long 2s and shot 56.1 percent on close-in shots.

His season also puts his name on another list for the fourth time -- that of the top TS% marks in recent NBA history. Relative to the league, Barry's TS% was the 12th-best since 1989-90; five of the marks on that list are held by members of the Barry clan.


Top TS% seasons, relative to league average, since 1989-90*
PlayerYear Rel. TS%
Danny Fortson 2004-051.288
Brent Barry 2003-041.280
Brent Barry 2000-011.274
Tim Legler 1995-961.268
Fred Hoiberg 2004-051.255
Brent Barry 2001-021.253
Mark West 1990-911.246
Steve Kerr 1996-971.245
Mario Elie 1996-971.236
Jon Barry 2001-021.234
Charles Barkley 1989-901.232
Brent Barry 2006-071.231


* - minimum 1,000 minutes played


As you might imagine, that TS% helped improve his PER considerably -- he ranked 17th among shooting guards. Barry had his highest 40-minute scoring rate in five years and recovered from the previous year's weird struggles at the line.

Scouting report: While Barry's stand-still shooting stroke looks as deadly as ever, his defense is really starting to slip. Opponents routinely ran offense through whomever he was guarding, and Barry lost his starting job to Michael Finley even though he was shooting the lights out. While he's a clever player who will force opponents into Tim Duncan's path, his lack of muscle and lateral movement are becoming major issues.

In addition to his shooting, Barry is a very good ballhandler and passer with an outstanding feel for the game. He rarely gets to show these skills because he's mostly a catch-and-shoot player, but his court vision is without peer. A former dunk champ, Barry still can get up for transition jams at age 35.

2007-08 outlook: Entering a contract year, Barry is likely to see his TS% drop this year -- it's difficult to stay that hot forever. But even if his mark is more like 60 than last year's 66, it still makes him a valuable reserve because of his ability to stretch defenses and burn double-teams. His passing and dribbling skills also make him a useful player even when his shot isn't falling.

However, his defensive shortcomings likely mean his days as a starter are done. Look for him to play 15-20 minutes a night off the pine as the Spurs' fourth or fifth wing player, as Manu Ginoibili, Bruce Bowen, Michael Finley and Ime Udoka all will chip away at his minutes.

Most similar at age: Jon Barry
Key to Player Statistics
FG% Field-goal Percentage

FT% Free-throw Percentage

P/40 Points per 40 minutes

R/40 Rebounds per 40 minutes

A/40 Assists per 40 minutes

TS% True Shooting Percentage calculates what a player’s shooting percentage would be if we accounted for free throws and 3-pointers. True Shooting Percentage = (Total points x 50) divided by [(FGA + (FTA x 0.44)]

Ast Assist Ratio is the percentage of a player’s possessions that ends in an assist. Assist Ratio = (Assists x 100) divided by [(FGA + (FTA x 0.44) + Assists + Turnovers]

Reb Rebound Rate is the percentage of missed shots that a player rebounds. Rebound Rate = (Rebounds x Team Minutes) divided by [Player Minutes x (Team Rebounds + Opponent Rebounds)]

PER Player Efficiency Rating is my overall rating of a player’s per-minute statistical production. The league average is 15.00 every season.

TO Turnover Ratio is the percentage of a player’s possessions that end in a turnover. Turnover Ratio = (Turnover x 100) divided by [(FGA + (FTA x 0.44) + Assists + Turnovers]

Usg Usage Rate is the number of possessions a player uses per 40 minutes. Usage Rate = {[FGA + (FT Att. x 0.44) + (Ast x 0.33) + TO] x 40 x League Pace} divided by (Minutes x Team Pace)

Most similar at age is the player who was the most similar to this one at the same age using my Similarity Scores formula. Similarity Scores compare players on several statistical and physical criteria to find the best comparisons from the recent past. These are also used to help generate the projected stats for 2007-08, which appear at the bottom of the chart for each player who played more than 500 minutes.
香瓜离线中   引用
 2007-10-21 15:45  #2
管理员
 
加入日期: 2004-04-25
帖子: 4429
现金: 40 盾
香瓜 荣获 2005-06 Fantasy NBA ChinaSpurs 联赛第13名
回复: John Hollinger 对每个球员的分析和预测

#15 Matt Bonner | FC
Spurs Roster:

<a target=Matt Bonner" onerror="function anonymous()
{
loadDefaultHS('HeadShot');
}" src="http://assets.espn.go.com/i/nba/profiles/players/65x90/3748.jpg" width="65" />
Born: April 5, 1980
Concord, NH
Height: 6-10
Weight: 240 lbs.
Age: 27
Pos: FC
College: Florida
Drafted: 2003, 2nd round, 16th pick by Bulls
2008 Salary: $2,700,000
FANTASY
Percent Owned (Week +/-):
NBA: 0.0% (0.0%)
Avg. Draft Position:
NBA: 0.0
PPG 4.9 | RPG 2.8 | BPG 0.2

Hollinger Player Profile | Stats Key
SEASONFG%FT%P/40R/40A/40TS%AstTOUsgRebPER
2004-05.533.78915.27.31.259.68.26.914.010.414.69
2005-06.448.82913.66.61.358.29.55.412.810.113.79
2006-07.447.71116.89.51.354.27.38.318.014.416.47
2007-08 (projected).429.72615.38.11.454.668.697.0716.19.815.14

2006-07 season: One of the best redheaded power forwards ever produced by the state of New Hampshire, [url=https://www.chinaspurs.com/players/matt_bonner][url=https://www.chinaspurs.com/players/matt_bonner]Bonner's first year in San Antonio was mostly spent sitting around waiting for Robert Horry to retire. Though a potent long-range force in his own right, [url=https://www.chinaspurs.com/players/matt_bonner][url=https://www.chinaspurs.com/players/matt_bonner]Bonner's role overlapped with Horry's so much that he took home several DNPs in the regular season and saw only 27 minutes of action in the postseason.

But when he played, [url=https://www.chinaspurs.com/players/matt_bonner][url=https://www.chinaspurs.com/players/matt_bonner]Bonner was darn good, making one wonder if he might take Horry's job by force this year. [url=https://www.chinaspurs.com/players/matt_bonner][url=https://www.chinaspurs.com/players/matt_bonner]Bonner is an effective offensive player because he's such a good outside shooter -- he made 38.3 percent of his 3-pointers last season, and that was an off year for him.

Because he almost never dribbles, his turnover ratio is very low -- he ranked sixth among power forwards last season, and that was a huge increase over his previous two seasons. He was no shrinking violet waiting in the corner, either -- [url=https://www.chinaspurs.com/players/matt_bonner][url=https://www.chinaspurs.com/players/matt_bonner]Bonner averaged 16.8 points per 40 minutes.

The big surprise was his rebound rate. [url=https://www.chinaspurs.com/players/matt_bonner][url=https://www.chinaspurs.com/players/matt_bonner]Bonner has no vertical and short arms, so his rebound numbers in Toronto were terrible. But last season he was just above the average for power forwards in rebound rate.

Scouting report: [url=https://www.chinaspurs.com/players/matt_bonner][url=https://www.chinaspurs.com/players/matt_bonner]Bonner is one of the best shooting big men in the league, with a quick, compact stroke from over his right shoulder that is his primary offensive weapon. He's capable of shooting it off the dribble after faking the initial 3-point attempt, but if he takes more than one bounce disaster is likely to ensue.

Defensively, [url=https://www.chinaspurs.com/players/matt_bonner][url=https://www.chinaspurs.com/players/matt_bonner]Bonner has a wide frame and isn't afraid to throw his weight around, but he's one of the weaker defenders to pass through San Antonio's program. His lack of ups and short arms make him a limited shot-blocker, and he's not the most nimble of defenders when asked to play the perimeter.

2007-08 outlook: [url=https://www.chinaspurs.com/players/matt_bonner][url=https://www.chinaspurs.com/players/matt_bonner]Bonner signed a three-year, $9 million deal to stay with the Spurs in the offseason, and as usual it's a prudent move by San Antonio. [url=https://www.chinaspurs.com/players/matt_bonner][url=https://www.chinaspurs.com/players/matt_bonner]Bonner has played much better than his dollar amount, and the Spurs get the sweet spot of his career -- ages 28 through 30 -- without having to bite into any of the rind.

In the short term, [url=https://www.chinaspurs.com/players/matt_bonner][url=https://www.chinaspurs.com/players/matt_bonner]Bonner figures to be a very effective sniper off the bench if he can ever move past Horry in the rotation. San Antonio's system prizes players who can spread the floor for Tim Duncan and Tony Parker, and that's [url=https://www.chinaspurs.com/players/matt_bonner][url=https://www.chinaspurs.com/players/matt_bonner]Bonner's best skill. It's likely to put him in a more prominent role sooner or later, but he might have to wait another year.

Most similar at age: Jumaine Jones
香瓜离线中   引用
 2007-10-21 15:51  #3
管理员
 
加入日期: 2004-04-25
帖子: 4429
现金: 40 盾
香瓜 荣获 2005-06 Fantasy NBA ChinaSpurs 联赛第13名
回复: John Hollinger 对每个球员的分析和预测

#12 Bruce Bowen | SF
Spurs Roster:

<a target=Bruce Bowen" onerror="function anonymous()
{
loadDefaultHS('HeadShot');
}" src="http://assets.espn.go.com/i/nba/profiles/players/65x90/3167.jpg" width="65" />
Born: June 14, 1971
Merced, CA
Height: 6-7
Weight: 200 lbs.
Age: 36
Pos: SF
College: Cal State Fullerton
2008 Salary: $4,125,000
FANTASY
Percent Owned (Week +/-):
NBA: 0.0% (0.0%)
Avg. Draft Position:
NBA: 0.0
PPG 6.2 | RPG 2.7 | APG 1.4

Hollinger Player Profile | Stats Key
SEASONFG%FT%P/40R/40A/40TS%AstTOUsgRebPER
2002-03.466.4049.13.71.856.316.110.29.95.49.12
2003-04.420.5798.63.91.751.215.011.910.55.48.21
2004-05.420.63410.34.31.952.115.26.911.66.39.57
2005-06.433.6079.04.61.854.016.58.710.26.99.16
2006-07.405.5898.33.61.951.117.29.510.15.57.18
2007-08 (projected).373.5517.64.01.745.9915.589.888.835.876.18

2006-07 season: The question that confounds basketball analysts of all stripes is how to value a player like Bruce Bowen. Statistically, he does virtually nothing. Yet his defense is a huge key to the Spurs' success, as LeBron James found out when Bowen harassed him into 35.6 percent shooting and nearly six turnovers a game during the Finals.

Bowen made his seventh straight All-Defense team last year and again narrowly missed out on winning the Defensive Player of the Year award. In my own stab at rating defensive players, he came out at the top of the charts as well.

He has to be that good with the way he plays offense. Bowen rarely shoots and when he does his true shooting percentage isn't particularly good. While he's an accurate 3-point shooter who hit 38.4 percent from downtown last year, that mastery doesn't extend to the free-throw line (57 percent career) and he's not particularly good at long 2s (36.4 percent last year). He's also useless on the boards, with the third-worst rebound rate among small forwards.

Scouting report: Bowen is an elite defensive player thanks to his combination of quickness, determination and length. He's especially good against guards who like to penetrate from the perimeter, as Bowen harasses them by moving his feet and getting in the way. Bowen almost never goes for steals and rarely flops; his game is predicated on forcing as difficult a shot as possible, over and over.

The players that gave him the most trouble are strong guys who like to play on the blocks. Carmelo Anthony has had some success against him, and players like Ron Artest and Bonzi Wells also seem to give him difficulty.

Offensively, pretty much all he can do is make 3-pointers from the corners, although he's at least a decent passer. Teams try to chase him off his shot and make him put it in the floor, where he's mediocre from midrange and a horrendous finisher at the basket.

2007-08 outlook: Bowen's defense doesn't seem to have slipped any and he's kept himself in great shape -- in fact he hasn't missed a game in the past five years and has the league's longest ironman streak at 436 games.

But I'd still be a little worried if I were the Spurs. His Player Efficiency Rating dipped quite a bit last year, he's 36, and the Spurs are short on potential solutions if he starts to slip. Entering the final year of his contact, at least he has the incentive to hold off the aging process for 12 more months.

Most similar at age: Tyrone Corbin
香瓜离线中   引用
 2007-10-21 15:56  #4
管理员
 
加入日期: 2004-04-25
帖子: 4429
现金: 40 盾
香瓜 荣获 2005-06 Fantasy NBA ChinaSpurs 联赛第13名
回复: John Hollinger 对每个球员的分析和预测

#21 Tim Duncan | FC
Spurs Roster:

<a target=Tim Duncan" onerror="function anonymous()
{
loadDefaultHS('HeadShot');
}" src="http://assets.espn.go.com/i/nba/profiles/players/65x90/3173.jpg" width="65" />
Born: April 25, 1976
St. Croix, Virgin Islands
Height: 6-11
Weight: 260 lbs.
Age: 31
Pos: FC
College: Wake Forest
Drafted: 1997, 1st round, 1st pick by Spurs
2008 Salary: $19,014,188
FANTASY
Percent Owned (Week +/-):
NBA: 100.0% (+100.0%)
Avg. Draft Position:
NBA: 13.7
PPG 20 | RPG 10.6 | BPG 2.4
Status Alert: Duncan (rest) did not play as the Spurs defeated Golden State on Thursday. (Oct 19)

Hollinger Player Profile | Stats Key
SEASONFG%FT%P/40R/40A/40TS%AstTOUsgRebPER
2002-03.513.71023.713.14.056.414.111.125.719.027.00
2003-04.501.59924.313.63.453.411.610.027.119.027.14
2004-05.496.67024.413.33.354.011.68.226.619.427.12
2005-06.484.62921.312.63.652.313.510.625.118.723.13
2006-07.546.63723.512.44.057.914.511.925.518.726.20
2007-08 (projected).519.62321.512.24.055.0615.4911.9624.9918.523.72

2006-07 season: One of the more amazing subplots of the MVP race was how everyone conveniently ignored Duncan's existence. While this is remarkably easy to do given his lack of spectacular highlights, folks really ought to know better. Duncan ranked fourth in the league in Player Efficiency Ratio, and more importantly was second among players who missed less than 30 games. He was, at worst, the third-best defensive player in the league, and his team had the league's best victory margin and eventually won the title.

At the end of the year, I sized it up as a close race between Dirk Nowitzki and Duncan for the trophy, with Nowitzki barely getting the nod. But apparently nobody else felt that way. Of the 129 media members who voted for the MVP, exactly three of them put Duncan in their top two -- or one more than put Tracy McGrady there. Duncan finished a distant fourth in the voting, behind Nowitzki and two players -- Steve Nash and Kobe Bryant -- that, over the course of the season, he fairly clearly outclassed.

His season is practically a one-man essay on the difference between perception and reality. The Spurs limited him to 34.1 minutes per game, which made his per-game averages (20.0 points and 10.6 rebounds) some of the worst of his career, which led to the perception that he wasn't near his peak performance level.

Duncan already suffers from a perception problem, of course, because his game has almost no sex appeal. While he's very skilled and extremely sound, he does very few things during the course of the game that would make you blurt out the word awesome, while the likes of Nash and Bryant are far more entertaining.

And finally, there was a perception issue regarding his team. Because we rate teams by win-loss record and tend to ignore the underlying factors, most folks totally overlooked the fact that the Spurs, not Dallas or Phoenix, were the league's best team in the regular season. Average victory margin is a much better indicator of quality than won-loss record, and San Antonio was way ahead of the league in this category -- which explains why the Spurs eventually won the title.

But since Duncan was perceived as having an off year for the third-best team in the West, his contributions were largely overlooked. Adding insult to injury, a clearly inferior defender beat him out for the Defensive Player of the Year award (an honor Duncan has never won, which is insane), in a vote where more than half the writers left him off their ballot entirely.

On the court, Duncan shot a career-high 54.6 percent from the floor, had the No. 8 rebound rate among centers (and yes, he's a center, not a power forward -- veteran readers know not to get me started on this), and boosted his Player Efficiency Rating back up to near his career peak after foot trouble resulted in a bad year in 20005-06. But here's my favorite Duncan stat -- other than his one true weakness (free-throw shooting), he ranked in the top 25 among centers in every statistical category.

One big difference was that he had shot horribly anytime he was more than a couple feet from the basket in 2005-06. Last year, he improved from 35 percent to 42.2 percent on non-layup 2-pointers -- enough of an improvement that his overall marks were outstanding.

Scouting report: Duncan can post up from either block but prefers to operate from the left, where he uses the glass as well as any player who has every played the game. He loves to face up and shoot a 15-footer high off the board, but he also will fake the shot and get to the rim, or entangle his arms in the defender's on the way up in order to draw a foul. When he backs in, Duncan can go to the hook over his left shoulder, or lean in and then fade back for a short jumper. He rarely spins back to the baseline and should use this maneuver more often as a counter.

Duncan has become a very good passer out of double teams, ranking 10th among centers in assist ratio. He doesn't lose the ball in traffic nearly as much as he did in his younger days, primarily because he forces the action less against rotating defenses. He's also a great outlet passer.

Defensively, Duncan usually doesn't guard the opponents' best post player unless it's crunch time. But when given the assignment, his combination of length and discipline makes him virtually impossible to shoot over. Duncan never leaves his feet to send shots into the seats, so his defensive game sometimes goes underappreciated, but his ability to alter shots without leaving the boards exposed is second to none. This also makes him a huge factor in help defense; in fact, it's why the Spurs' perimeter defenders make a point of funneling opposing scorers into Duncan.

2007-08 outlook: Duncan is technically a free agent next summer, but don't hold your breath. The Spurs can and will extend his deal for the max before the season starts.

On the court, Duncan's projection isn't as optimistic as you might expect, because the projections don't know that Duncan's foot was hurt in 2005-06. That doesn't mean the projections are invalid; what it does mean is that we should know what went into them if we want to know how much confidence to put into what they're telling us.

That said, foot problems like Duncan had two years ago can and do come back, so this isn't a trifling concern. At 31, Duncan cannot expect to improve statistically -- or can he? Regardless, he should be among the game's best players again next season -- even if nobody is willing to acknowledge it until June.

Most similar at age: Patrick Ewing
香瓜离线中   引用
 2007-10-21 16:08  #5
管理员
 
加入日期: 2004-04-25
帖子: 4429
现金: 40 盾
香瓜 荣获 2005-06 Fantasy NBA ChinaSpurs 联赛第13名
回复: John Hollinger 对每个球员的分析和预测

#16 Francisco Elson | C
Spurs Roster:

Francisco Elson
Born: February 28, 1976
Rotterdam, Netherlands
Height: 7-0
Weight: 235 lbs.
Age: 31
Pos: C
College: California
2008 Salary: $3,000,000
FANTASY
Percent Owned (Week +/-):
NBA: 0.0% (0.0%)
Avg. Draft Position:
NBA: 0.0
PPG 5 | RPG 4.8 | BPG 0.8
Status Alert: Elson had 15 points (7-of-11 FG, 1-of-1 FT), eight rebounds, two assists and a block in the Spurs' win over Golden State on Thursday. (Oct 19)

Hollinger Player Profile | Stats Key
SEASONFG%FT%P/40R/40A/40TS%AstTOUsgRebPER
2003-04.472.66710.09.31.549.811.212.211.713.111.33
2004-05.468.57010.68.61.449.510.512.312.512.310.73
2005-06.532.6628.98.61.255.611.015.29.712.610.10
2006-07.511.77510.510.11.755.212.018.813.015.211.26
2007-08 (projected).480.6978.88.61.351.6810.8616.8110.6612.989.37

2006-07 season: It seems one of the first things the Spurs did after they signed Elson was sit him down and explain that he's not a jump shooter. Elson happily fired away from 15 feet as a Nugget, taking 39.1 percent of his shots from outside in his final season in Denver. That dipped to just 16.0 percent last year, as the Spurs had him taking most of his tries in the paint. Elson's overall percentage didn't improve because he shot worse from close-in, but the revised mix makes a lot of sense.

Elson had his best season as a rebounder by far. He's been well below average in that respect his whole career, but last season he was right around the average for centers. He also had a career best in Player Efficiency Rating, and it would have been even better if he stopped throwing the ball to the other team. His high turnover ratio was the result of repeatedly botched high-low passes to Tim Duncan, something that caused his role to diminish rapidly during the course of the postseason.

Scouting report: A slender 7-footer, Elson runs the floor very well for a big man and gets himself some easy transition buckets this way. That also helps on defense, as the Spurs can afford to play their two 7-footers together without getting beat in transition.

Elson moves his feet well on D and can be used against much smaller opponents, and his combo of length and quickness makes him very useful in zones. However, his lack of physicality is a liability against stronger centers.

Offensively, he's fairly useless in the half court but will spring a jump hook on opponents when he catches the ball in the post.

2007-08 outlook: People talk about Elson as if he's an up-and-coming player, but he's actually 31 years old. Nonetheless, there's still a chance he could improve on last season's numbers. All he has to do is cut down on the turnovers, something that hadn't been a problem until last season.

Additionally, Elson is entering the final year of his contract so he has some incentive to dial it up. He'll once again be in a time-share situation with Fabricio Oberto, and Robert Horry and Matt Bonner also will cut into his minutes. Nonetheless, if he can play a role on a championship team one more time, somebody is likely to overpay for him next summer.

Most similar at age: Zan Tabak
香瓜离线中   引用
 2007-10-21 16:12  #6
管理员
 
加入日期: 2004-04-25
帖子: 4429
现金: 40 盾
香瓜 荣获 2005-06 Fantasy NBA ChinaSpurs 联赛第13名
回复: John Hollinger 对每个球员的分析和预测

#4 Michael Finley | GF
Spurs Roster:

Michael Finley
Born: March 6, 1973
Melrose Park, IL
Height: 6-7
Weight: 225 lbs.
Age: 34
Pos: GF
College: Wisconsin
Drafted: 1995, 1st round, 21st pick by Suns
2008 Salary: $3,103,000
FANTASY
Percent Owned (Week +/-):
NBA: 0.0% (0.0%)
Avg. Draft Position:
NBA: 0.0
PPG 9 | RPG 2.7 | APG 1.3

Hollinger Player Profile | Stats Key
SEASONFG%FT%P/40R/40A/40TS%AstTOUsgRebPER
2002-03.425.86120.26.13.151.412.77.122.08.417.57
2003-04.443.85019.34.73.153.913.85.419.56.417.84
2004-05.427.83117.04.42.951.914.15.018.06.214.34
2005-06.412.85215.34.92.352.312.66.717.07.212.73
2006-07.412.91816.34.92.452.412.65.317.87.413.76
2007-08 (projected).356.81213.04.62.045.9812.35.9315.056.8910.67

2006-07 season: Most players have to be encouraged to shoot less. Finley had the opposite problem -- the Spurs prodded him to chuck it more often last year after they felt he passed up too many good shots in his first season in San Antonio. And launch away he did, especially on 3-pointers.

Finley added nearly one full 3-point attempt per 40 minutes, increasing his scoring rate by a point in the process. That made the veteran swingman more of a scoring threat and led to his instatement as a starter late in the season. From there, he hoisted over five 3-point attempts a game in the playoffs, made 41.9 percent, and earned his first championship ring.

His best skill isn't the 3s, though. It's that he can score without ever turning it over. Finley is one of the most extreme low-turnover players in NBA history, and did it again last season -- his turnover ratio ranked second among small forwards. Finley and New Jersey's Eddie House were the league's only two players to have a turnover ratio below 6 and a usage rate above 15.

Scouting report: A 6-7 wing who is more comfortable at small forward than shooting guard, Finley is a poor ballhandler with a high dribble -- but fortunately, he knows it. That's one reason he makes so few turnovers -- he mostly catches and shoots, or sometimes he'll shoot off one dribble. But he almost never puts himself in positions where he's handling the ball in traffic.

When he does shoot, Finley still has enough elevation that it's tough for defenders to bother the shot, even when he's in close quarters. He remains a decent athlete even at 34 and still can do quality work on the defensive end.

He's also an awesome foul shooter who hit 91.8 percent from the stripe last season. Unfortunately, he hardly ever gets to the line anymore because he shoots so many jumpers -- in fact, he didn't win the free-throw title because he didn't have enough attempts to qualify.

2007-08 outlook: Finley should play a major role as a wingman for the Spurs, as he figures to be a sometimes-starter who will give way to Manu Ginobili during crunch time. He's 34 and in his free agent year, so obviously it's imperative for him to bang out a strong season, but given his conditioning and lack of recurrent nagging injuries he has a good chance to match his output from a year ago.


Most similar at age: Ron Anderson
香瓜离线中   引用
 2007-10-21 16:13  #7
管理员
 
加入日期: 2004-04-25
帖子: 4429
现金: 40 盾
香瓜 荣获 2005-06 Fantasy NBA ChinaSpurs 联赛第13名
回复: John Hollinger 对每个球员的分析和预测

#20 Manu Ginobili | SG
Spurs Roster:

<a target=Manu Ginobili" onerror="function anonymous()
{
loadDefaultHS('HeadShot');
}" src="http://assets.espn.go.com/i/nba/profiles/players/65x90/3380.jpg" width="65" />
Born: July 28, 1977
Bahia Blanca, Argentina
Height: 6-6
Weight: 205 lbs.
Pronounced: MAN-oo Jih-NOH-buh-lee
Age: 30
Pos: SG
2008 Salary: $9,079,811
FANTASY
Percent Owned (Week +/-):
NBA: 100.0% (+100.0%)
Avg. Draft Position:
NBA: 65.3
PPG 16.5 | APG 3.5 | 3P% .396
Status Alert: Ginobili had 16 points (5-of-10 FG, 0-of-2 3-PT, 6-of-6 FT), five rebounds and two assists in the Spurs' exhibition win over the Warriors on Thursday. (Oct 19)

Hollinger Player Profile | Stats Key
SEASONFG%FT%P/40R/40A/40TS%AstTOUsgRebPER
2002-03.438.73714.74.53.955.619.414.117.56.514.75
2003-04.418.80217.56.15.253.621.211.721.18.518.54
2004-05.471.80321.66.05.360.920.112.023.28.822.35
2005-06.462.77821.65.15.259.319.910.223.27.522.43
2006-07.464.86024.06.35.160.918.310.925.19.624.18
2007-08 (projected).447.83321.95.74.859.1318.6510.8823.778.5121.70

2006-07 season: Usually secondary players on championship teams become somewhat overrated. Ginobili is the glaring exception to that rule. He's perceived as a nice, solid, complementary player because he averages 16.5 points a game and comes off the bench and plays in a small city. Guess again: This guy's a superstar. If he played in a bigger market or played more minutes, it would become more apparent just how good Ginobili is, and what a travesty it was that he neither made the All-Star team nor won the Sixth Man award.

Ginobili ranked ninth in the NBA in Player Efficiency Rating last season. Not ninth among shooting guards or ninth among internationals -- I mean ninth out of everyone in the universe, right behind Kevin Garnett and just ahead of Carlos Boozer. He ranked ahead of five players -- Boozer, Gilbert Arenas, Steve Nash, Tracy McGrady, and Chris Bosh -- who finished in the top 10 in the MVP voting.

For some of you, this is evidence that Ginobili did indeed have a great year. For others, this is merely evidence that I am crazy. But go through the numbers and tell me where he was worse. Per-minute, if you compare what Manu did against those five superstars (Boozer, Arenas, Nash, McGrady, and Bosh), it's pretty easy see why he ranked ahead of them -- even though the general perception would be fairly unanimous that those players had better years.

I emphasize, per minute. Once you adjust for the fact that Ginobili only played 27.5 minutes per game, his numbers become astounding. Per 40 minutes, his rates of points, assists and rebounds were right in line with the other players on the list (see chart).

Ginobili vs. the superstars -- Stats per 40 minutes
Player Pts/40Rk Reb/40Rk Ast/40Rk T0/40RkTS%RkPER
Manu Ginobili 24.046.33 5.143.05360.9224.18
Carlos Boozer 24.2313.513.4 53.00258.8324.11
Gilbert Arenas 28.614.65 6.033.21456.5524.07
Steve Nash 21.064.0613.2 14.28665.4123.87
Tracy McGrady 27.526.047.223.35551.5623.28
Chris Bosh 23.5511.222.6 62.70157.7422.72


But where he really stands out are the secondary numbers. His turnover ratio is much better than the other perimeter players' and nearly as good as Boozer's; and his true shooting percentage is better than everyone's except Nash. And while I don't have room for it in the chart, his defensive numbers blow these guys away -- among shooting guards, Ginobili had the ninth-best rate of blocks per minute and the fourth-best rate of steals, and he did it while staying in San Antonio's team concept.

So why did we perceive the other guys as having superstar years but not Ginobili? Because we still worship at the altar of per-game averages, and there's simply no way for a player who plays 27.5 minutes per game to get numbers gaudy enough to get our attention.

That his minutes remain so low shows remarkable restraint on the part of the Spurs, who prefer to keep their silent star bottled up until they really need him (like say, in Games 5 and 6 against Phoenix, when he played 38 and 36 minutes) and otherwise keep him fresh. It also shows unusual esprit de corps on the part of an A-list talent, as Ginobili willingly went from starter to sixth man without so much as a peep of dissent.

Scouting report: Ginobili is almost impossible to contain on his left-handed drives to the rim because he changes angles and directions so effectively. Additionally, he has a knack for drawing contact and getting to the line, helped by some of the league's more impressive thespian skills.

He's also improved leaps and bounds as a shooter. Ginobili shot a career-best 39.6 percent on 3-pointers, and did it while attempting over 100 more than the year before. He's become very adept at stopping after one dribble to his left and pulling up for the 3, something he uses frequently on screen-and-roll plays if he sees his defender go behind the screen. He's even better from the corners, where he made 46.7 percent last year.

Ginobili is an underrated defender with great hands, and is the best in the league at leaping to deflect a pass thrown by his own man. The Spurs rarely play him against big-time scorers because they have Bruce Bowen, but when asked, Ginobili does creditable work. He's also huge on the glass, sporting the second-best rebound rate among shooting guards.

Finally, he's a flashy ballhandler who dribbled through an opponent's legs on at least two occasions last year -- once on Cleveland's Daniel Gibson in Game 3 of the Finals, and another time on Seattle's Rashard Lewis in the regular season. He's also a master of the length-of-the-court bounce pass, though he doesn't pass as well on the drive.

One other thing worth mentioning is that last year was the second in a row that Ginobili scored more points on the road, and the difference was huge. He averaged a whopping 4.1 points per game more in away games, where he shot both more frequently and more accurately than at home.

2007-08 outlook: Ginobili is 30 and his quickness is one of his chief assets, so it might be unrealistic to expect him to play at this level again next season. Nonetheless, his past three seasons have all been All-Star caliber, and there's no reason to doubt he can extend that streak to four. While his exploits don't get the proper recognition because of his limited minutes, he'll continue to be among the best players in the league.

Most similar at age: Eddie Jones
香瓜离线中   引用
 2007-10-21 16:17  #8
管理员
 
加入日期: 2004-04-25
帖子: 4429
现金: 40 盾
香瓜 荣获 2005-06 Fantasy NBA ChinaSpurs 联赛第13名
回复: John Hollinger 对每个球员的分析和预测

#25 Robert Horry | PF
Spurs Roster:

<a target=Robert Horry" onerror="function anonymous()
{
loadDefaultHS('HeadShot');
}" src="http://assets.espn.go.com/i/nba/profiles/players/65x90/0830.jpg" width="65" />
Born: August 25, 1970
Hartford, MD
Height: 6-10
Weight: 240 lbs.
Pronounced: OHR-ee
Age: 37
Pos: PF
College: Alabama
Drafted: 1992, 1st round, 11th pick by Rockets
2008 Salary: $3,630,000
FANTASY
Percent Owned (Week +/-):
NBA: 0.0% (0.0%)
Avg. Draft Position:
NBA: 0.0
PPG 3.9 | RPG 3.4 | BPG 0.6
Status Alert: Horry (personal reasons) missed his fifth straight practice, the San Antonio Express-News reports. (Oct 20)

Hollinger Player Profile | Stats Key
SEASONFG%FT%P/40R/40A/40TS%AstTOUsgRebPER
2002-03.387.7698.98.84.048.826.512.712.212.312.42
2003-04.405.64512.28.43.149.618.310.015.211.814.56
2004-05.419.78912.97.72.353.314.012.115.211.214.91
2005-06.384.64710.98.22.749.917.99.313.512.113.60
2006-07.359.5949.58.12.748.019.211.012.712.311.95
2007-08 (projected).335.5878.77.62.144.5716.6110.5911.311.3610.01

2006-07 season: Horry is infamous for sleepwalking through the regular season and then dialing it up in the playoffs; one longs to see him play for a lottery team just to see if he would follow the same strategy before terrorizing the golf course in May and June.

Horry's time-honored formula was in effect again last season, as he posted a higher scoring average after the All-Star break for the fourth straight season. But while Horry played a role on a champion and delivered a big shot in Game 4 of the Denver series, his overall production has begun to slip noticeably. Horry shot 35.9 percent last season and had a true shooting percentage below 50 for the fourth time in five years; he also averaged a meager 9.5 points per 40 minutes.

Offensively he's been reduced to a 3-point specialist -- 59.4 percent of his shot attempts came from that distance, the most of any power forward and the fifth-most in the league as a whole. He was one of only four frontcourt players to attempt more 3-pointers than 2-pointers last season, the other three being Donyell Marshall, Brian Scalabrine and Bostjan Nachbar. That would have been fine if he'd made a few, but Horry slumped to 33.6 percent on triples. He also forgot how to make foul shots, hitting 59.4 percent.

Horry's TS% improved in the playoffs -- a time when he's historically shined -- and he blocked nearly twice as many shots in the second season. But let's take that in context -- he averaged just over eight points and just under eight rebounds per 40 minutes.

His biggest role was the shoulder block he threw on Steve Nash at the end of Game 4 of the Phoenix series, one that got him suspended for two games but hurt the Suns much more when Amare Stoudemire and Boris Diaw got one-game bans for leaving the bench. Horry didn't score more than five points in a game the rest of the way.

Scouting report: Horry is a long-armed 6-10, and that length makes him a useful asset at the defensive end. He doesn't move like he used to, but he still has the mobility to defend screen-and-roll plays adequately and enough muscle to hold his own in the paint. He ranked 12th among power forwards in blocks per minute and eighth in steals, so even at 36 he was a major disruptor.

Horry's main offensive plan is to hang out at the three-point line, preferably the top of the circle, and wait for 3-point chances. He also gets some opportunities on offensive rebounds, but if he has to put the ball on the floor he's toast. Horry is a poor dribbler and, because of the giant hop step on his shot, he struggles shooting off the bounce. For that reason he made only 6 of 39 on long 2-pointers last year.

He's become a good passer, however, who is adept at playing the high-low game with Tim Duncan. Horry ranked fourth among power forwards in assist ratio last season.

2007-08 outlook: At 37, Horry has said he'll come back for one more season before calling it a career. With seven championship rings, he's not lacking for accomplishments, and he probably can hold off the rot long enough to be a useful reserve again next season.

One key has been that the Spurs are very careful not to tax him during the regular season, even sitting him out in some back-to-back games. That kept him fresh before they went to the whip in the postseason. They're likely to follow that strategy again in the hopes that Big Shot Rob can ride off into the sunset with ring No. 8.

Most similar at age: Toni Kukoc
香瓜离线中   引用
 2007-10-21 16:18  #9
管理员
 
加入日期: 2004-04-25
帖子: 4429
现金: 40 盾
香瓜 荣获 2005-06 Fantasy NBA ChinaSpurs 联赛第13名
回复: John Hollinger 对每个球员的分析和预测

#28 Ian Mahinmi | PF
Spurs Roster:

<a target=Ian Mahinmi" onerror="function anonymous()
{
loadDefaultHS('HeadShot');
}" src="http://assets.espn.go.com/i/nba/profiles/players/0000.jpg" width="65" />
Born:
Rouen, France
Height: 6-10
Weight: 230 lbs.
Age: 0
Pos: PF
Drafted: 2005, 1st round, 28th pick by Spurs
2008 Salary: $782,300
FANTASY
Percent Owned (Week +/-):
NBA: 0.0% (0.0%)
Avg. Draft Position:
NBA: UD
Status Alert: Mahinmi will likely be playing for the Spurs' developmental league team in Austin, the San Antonio Express-News reports. (Oct 17)

Hollinger Player Profile | Stats Key
SEASONFG%FT%P/40R/40A/40TS%AstTOUsgRebPER
No projected stats available for this player.

2007-08 outlook: San Antonio's first-round pick in 2005 surprisingly got the call to come over from Europe this year. His translated Player Efficiency Ratio from last season is only 7.85, so we're not talking about an impact player. Drafted as a project center, the 6-10 Frenchman is viewed as having massive defensive potential, but he blocked only three shots in Euroleage play last season for Pau Orthez.

Offensively he might be able to produce as a finisher, as he shot 66.7 percent from the floor in Europe, but forget about running any offense through him. Look for Mahinmi to spend much of the season with the Spurs' affiliate in Austin; he's only 20, so time remains on his side.
香瓜离线中   引用
 2007-10-21 16:19  #10
管理员
 
加入日期: 2004-04-25
帖子: 4429
现金: 40 盾
香瓜 荣获 2005-06 Fantasy NBA ChinaSpurs 联赛第13名
回复: John Hollinger 对每个球员的分析和预测

#7 Fabricio Oberto | C
Spurs Roster:

<a target=Fabricio Oberto" onerror="function anonymous()
{
loadDefaultHS('HeadShot');
}" src="http://assets.espn.go.com/i/nba/profiles/players/65x90/3988.jpg" width="65" />
Born: March 21, 1975
Las Varillas, Argentina
Height: 6-10
Weight: 245 lbs.
Age: 32
Pos: C
2008 Salary: $3,500,000
FANTASY
Percent Owned (Week +/-):
NBA: 0.0% (0.0%)
Avg. Draft Position:
NBA: 0.0
PPG 4.4 | RPG 4.7 | BPG 0.3

Hollinger Player Profile | Stats Key
SEASONFG%FT%P/40R/40A/40TS%AstTOUsgRebPER
2005-06.473.5568.410.02.249.116.917.511.814.89.31
2006-07.562.64710.210.82.057.515.415.711.916.311.99
2007-08 (projected).529.6688.810.32.054.7118.2516.4110.8415.7610.43

2006-07 season: What a difference a year makes. Oberto went from being a little-used reserve to a vital cog in an NBA championship lineup, capping it off by making a pair of key baskets in the fourth quarter of the Spurs' championship-clinching win.

Oberto did two things really well -- pass and make shots. His 56.2 percent shooting mark ranked fifth among power forwards, thanks in part to an improved midrange jumper: Oberto went from hitting 25 percent of his non-layup 2-pointers in 2006-07 to making 39.8 percent last season.

Oberto also had a solid rebound rate, and one that probably underrated him by a good margin. He had to set some kind of record for "tap-out" offensive rebounds in a season -- seemingly three times a game he would swat a ball back out top where one of the guards recovered it -- but statisticians often gave the guard credit for the rebound.

Scouting report: People talk about Manu Ginobili's acting, but Oberto is just as skillful. He has all kinds of subtle skills that draw fouls, with my favorite being the one where he grabs an opponent's arm and then snaps his head back when the guy reacts.

Offensively, Oberto moves well without the ball and has become very adept at timing cuts so that he flashes open at the rim right as Tim Duncan is double-teamed. This is how most of his points came, although he also improved his shooting stroke by working with San Antonio's coaches (see the Tony Parker comment for more on this).

Oberto isn't a great one-and-one defender -- he's slightly undersized and doesn't elevate well. But his cleverness and awareness is more useful in help situations, and he has decent mobility. He tied for the team lead with 31 offensive fouls drawn, according to 82games.com, and that's despite playing a lot less than some of his teammates.

2007-08 outlook: Oberto opted out of his contract after the season and signed a new three-year, $10.5 million deal to stay with the Spurs. He figures to open the season as the starting power forward, although he might trade that honor with Francisco Elson much of the year -- just as he did a year ago.

The deal was very reasonable on the money side; on the other hand Oberto is 32 and averaged four points a game last season. He's a complementary player at best, but one who seems to fit in with this group particularly well, so one could see him posting numbers similar to last season's for another year or two.

Most similar at age: Terry Davis
香瓜离线中   引用
 2007-10-21 16:21  #11
管理员
 
加入日期: 2004-04-25
帖子: 4429
现金: 40 盾
香瓜 荣获 2005-06 Fantasy NBA ChinaSpurs 联赛第13名
回复: John Hollinger 对每个球员的分析和预测

#9 Tony Parker | PG
Spurs Roster:

<a target=Tony Parker" onerror="function anonymous()
{
loadDefaultHS('HeadShot');
}" src="http://assets.espn.go.com/i/nba/profiles/players/65x90/3527.jpg" width="65" />
Born: May 17, 1982
Bruges, Belgium
Height: 6-2
Weight: 180 lbs.
Age: 25
Pos: PG
Drafted: 2001, 1st round, 28th pick by Spurs
2008 Salary: $10,500,000
FANTASY
Percent Owned (Week +/-):
NBA: 100.0% (+100.0%)
Avg. Draft Position:
NBA: 47.0
PPG 18.6 | APG 5.5 | SPG 1.1
Status Alert: Parker (sprained ankle) will make his exhibition season debut against Detroit on Saturday and play 15-20 minutes, the San Antonio Express-News reports. (Oct 20)

Hollinger Player Profile | Stats Key
SEASONFG%FT%P/40R/40A/40TS%AstTOUsgRebPER
2002-03.464.75518.33.16.254.224.011.022.14.516.51
2003-04.447.70217.13.76.451.624.810.821.75.115.66
2004-05.482.65019.54.47.252.825.010.924.56.418.03
2005-06.548.70722.23.86.858.423.012.425.65.720.89
2006-07.520.78322.84.06.757.222.610.325.96.021.46
2007-08 (projected).526.75922.33.96.858.4623.6611.0425.845.9921.70

2006-07 season: I might be in the minority here, but to me the most interesting part of Parker's year was not the details of his wedding, but rather the improvement in his jump shot. Parker has long been a layup machine; the difference is that now he's a layup machine who also can hit outside shots, making him virtually impossible to guard.

The progression can be seen by looking at both Parker's shot makeup and his percentage from each distance. Parker always has been able to get to the basket, and in fact he took and converted fewer last year than he has in other seasons. He's ridiculously good at them, as only three guards with more than 150 attempts converted a higher percentage of their shots at the rim (those three were Steve Nash, Dwyane Wade and Jose Calderon). In contrast, 16 of the league's point guards made fewer than half of these shots, including some pretty good ones (Mo Williams, Mike Bibby and T.J. Ford, for instance).

Tony Parker, Shooting By Season
3-pointersBasket areaLong 2-pointersFree throws
AttemptsPct.AttemptsPct.AttemptsPct.AttemptsPct.
2004-0515627.661959.324439.332365.0
2005-063630.665266.135341.235870.7
2006-073839.555463.039141.635078.3


As you can see by the chart, the difference in Parker between now and a couple years ago is that a) he's eschewed the 3-pointer in favor of taking more 2-pointers, b) he's massively improved as a foul shooter, and c) he's a lot more comfortable shooting the ball from midrange instead of taking the ball all the way to the basket.

The latter point hasn't translated into better percentages from distance; instead he's taking the shots in more situations. Two years ago he only pulled the trigger on it if he was wide, wide, wide open, something that happened fairly often as opposing guards went under screens and dared him to shoot. Now he needs much less space to let it rip, which has enabled him to become a much bigger part of the offense.

It's had another effect too -- when it gets to the end of the clock, he no longer has to drive into traffic. And because of that, his turnover ratio went from 12.3 in 2005-06 to 10.3 a year ago -- the best of his career, the 18th-best among point guards, and a pretty remarkable figure for somebody who drives so much.

We saw the results in the Finals, when Parker stunned Cleveland by repeatedly hitting long jumpers en route to winning the MVP trophy. Credit Parker, for all the work he's done with shooting coach Chip Engelland, but also credit the Spurs' organization. They're the only team in the league I know of that has even broached the idea of altering a player's shot after he's become an established star in the league. Around most of the league a player's shot is considered sacrosanct, even if it's obvious the dude can't shoot.

In this instance, I wonder if Parker will be the tip of the iceberg. Around the league, there are a great many players whose strokes could use work, but today the general approach is to just take more reps using the same horrid form. The Spurs broke down Parker's shot and built it back up again -- his shot is totally different than it what it was, and now it's a real weapon. Sacred cows can seem impossible to kill sometimes, but all it takes is one team willing to fly in the face of conventional wisdom and succeeding with it, and then the lemmings quickly follow.

Scouting report: Parker is one of the quickest players in the league, especially going to his right, and is a deadly finisher in the basket area from either side. When he can't get all the way to the rim, he has a soft touch on floaters that he puts just out of the reach of rotating big men. He also uses a floater shot-fake -- making him perhaps the only player in the league with this club in his bag -- that he uses often and to great effect.

Going to his right, Parker has added a change of pace move to complement his straight-line speed. And when he goes left on a pick-and-roll, he'll often dribble right into the big man and then quickly spin to his right, sealing the big guy while Parker cruises in for a lay-up. Add in his improved 2-point jumper and he's one of the best scoring point guards in basketball.

On the negative side, Parker isn't a natural passer and when he drives he's usually looking to score. He's also not a 3-point threat, though that might change if his jump shot continues progressing.

Defensively, Parker is underrated. He's bigger than people think at 6-2, and with his quickness he does a good job of keeping opposing dribblers in front of him -- not that it matters with Tim Duncan behind him.

2007-08 outlook: It's hard to believe Parker is only 25. Though I suppose it's possible his newfound celebrity status will swallow him whole, Parker seems remarkably capable of dealing with all the distractions -- with the drastic improvement in his jumper being the latest bit of evidence. Playing in the wilds of Bexar County instead of L.A. or New York is undoubtedly helpful in this regard. We're likely to see Parker's best seasons in the next two to three years, and if so we might see him a Finals MVP trophy once again.

Most similar at age: Kevin Johnson
香瓜离线中   引用
 2007-10-21 16:22  #12
管理员
 
加入日期: 2004-04-25
帖子: 4429
现金: 40 盾
香瓜 荣获 2005-06 Fantasy NBA ChinaSpurs 联赛第13名
回复: John Hollinger 对每个球员的分析和预测

#5 Ime Udoka | SF
Spurs Roster:

<a target=Ime Udoka" onerror="function anonymous()
{
loadDefaultHS('HeadShot');
}" src="http://assets.espn.go.com/i/nba/profiles/players/65x90/3501.jpg" width="65" />
Born: August 9, 1977
Portland, OR
Height: 6-6
Weight: 215 lbs.
Age: 30
Pos: SF
College: Portland State
2008 Salary: $1,000,000
FANTASY
Percent Owned (Week +/-):
NBA: 0.0% (0.0%)
Avg. Draft Position:
NBA: 0.0
PPG 8.4 | RPG 3.7 | APG 1.5

Hollinger Player Profile | Stats Key
SEASONFG%FT%P/40R/40A/40TS%AstTOUsgRebPER
2003-04.333.50011.47.12.937.212.719.020.110.16.67
2005-06.375.5007.75.92.141.317.35.810.69.06.10
2006-07.461.74211.75.22.156.915.29.912.88.112.09
2007-08 (projected).432.73611.15.22.153.8914.919.6812.58.2111.24

2006-07 season: Udoka played his high school ball at Portland's Jefferson high school, his college ball for Portland State, and last season for the Portland Trial Blazers, giving him the rare trifecta of playing pro, college and high school ball in the same city. Lorenzen Wright is the only other player to do this that comes to mind, though I'm sure there must be a few others.

Of course, this piece of trivia isn't nearly as remarkable as the circumstances surrounding Udoka's season. He was a training camp invitee mostly because he already lived there, and ended up making the team and earning a starting job because of his defense and hustle. From there he started 75 games, hit 40.6 percent of his 3-pointers, and established himself as one of the better defenders at his position. Not bad for a 29-year-old journeyman who had played 12 career games to that point.

Scouting report: The key for Udoka was establishing that he could hit 3s from the corner, which gave him an offensive role in addition to his defensive function. He has a line-drive delivery but proved very accurate last season, and as an added plus he's a good ballhandler who played point guard for the Nigerian squad at the World Championships. He's a middling finisher, though, thanks to a lack of explosion, and that's why most of his shots are jumpers.

Defensively, he's an ace stopper who makes up for middling size and short arms through dogged effort. The Blazers gave up 1.7 points fewer per 48 minutes with him on the court; strangely, he didn't receive a single all-defense vote from the coaches, offering further proof that recognition tends to lag performance by a year or two at this end of the floor.

2007-08 outlook: Udoka was one of the offseason's biggest free-agent bargains, signing a two-year deal with San Antonio worth just over $2 million after Portland opted to keep Travis Outlaw instead of Udoka.

Though Udoka is a bit of a risk because he's 30 and might not shoot the 3 as well this season, he also acts as a great insurance policy. San Antonio's biggest weakness is age on the wings, with Bruce Bowen, Michael Finley and Brent Barry all 35 or older. Udoka should be able to pick up the slack if one of them crashes and burns, and his defensive ability makes him the stopper-in-waiting should Bowen decline.

Most similar at age: Jud Buechler
香瓜离线中   引用
 2007-10-21 16:23  #13
管理员
 
加入日期: 2004-04-25
帖子: 4429
现金: 40 盾
香瓜 荣获 2005-06 Fantasy NBA ChinaSpurs 联赛第13名
回复: John Hollinger 对每个球员的分析和预测

#14 Beno Udrih | PG
Spurs Roster:

Beno Udrih
Born: July 5, 1982
Celje, Yugoslavia
Height: 6-3
Weight: 200 lbs.
Pronounced: BAY-no OO-drick
Age: 25
Pos: PG
Drafted: 2004, 1st round, 28th pick by Spurs
2008 Salary: $1,747,096
FANTASY
Percent Owned (Week +/-):
NBA: 0.0% (0.0%)
Avg. Draft Position:
NBA: 0.0
PPG 4.7 | APG 1.7 | SPG 0.4

Hollinger Player Profile | Stats Key
SEASONFG%FT%P/40R/40A/40TS%AstTOUsgRebPER
2004-05.444.75316.42.95.254.922.911.719.84.214.31
2005-06.455.78018.63.56.253.923.013.323.65.215.28
2006-07.369.88314.33.55.145.922.210.220.25.210.31
2007-08 (projected).403.83715.83.55.449.1122.4611.1520.785.3212.37

2006-07 season: I spent all this time defending Udrih a year ago, and then he does this to me. Udrih lost his backup point guard role to Jacque Vaughn, of all people, and didn't even put up much of a fight. He and Gregg Popovich were at loggerheads almost from the get-go, when Popovich was upset that Udrih didn't recover quickly from a training camp hamstring injury, and things went downhill from there.

While Udrih showed his usual penchant for creating shots, making them proved another story. He hit only 36.9 percent from the floor and an ugly 28.7 percent on 3-pointers, leading to a horrid true shooting percentage that ranked 62nd among the league's 67 point guards.

A key to the struggles was his inability to get to the rim. Udrih massively upped the percentage of his 2-point shots that weren't in the immediate basket area -- from 28.1 percent of his shots in 2005-06 to 43.1 percent last year. At the same time, his accuracy on those shots went the other direction, from 43.9 percent two years ago to 36.1 percent last year.

So basically he spent a lot more time taking shots that he had trouble making. Last year was also the third in a row he shot 36 percent or less on long 2-pointers, furthering the idea that midrange jumpers aren't quite his cup of tea.

Scouting report: Udrih is a shoot-first point guard who has good range on his line-drive lefty jump shot but spotty accuracy. If he's not scoring, he's not helping, because his assist ratio is consistently near the bottom of the players at his position.

Udrih has good size at the defensive end but poor feet, so he's a bit of a liability at that end. He's big enough to play the 2 on occasion, a more natural fit for his offensive game, but between his modest quickness and soft play he's the guard version of a tweener.

2007-08 outlook: Udrih played much better in his first two seasons than he did a year ago, and one suspects he'll bounce back some next season. That said, the Spurs are in an interesting spot with him. He's in the last year of his contract heading into restricted free agency, but the Spurs don't seem to have a role for him. At any rate there's no point in paying good money for somebody to play 10 minutes a night behind Tony Parker.

For all those reasons, Udrih is prime trade bait heading into this season. He's 25, he's cheap, and he's shown he can score, so for teams with a hole in the backcourt this seems like a worthwhile gamble. If nobody takes the plunge, he can look forward to another year of being the third point guard in a two-man rotation.

Most similar at age: LaBradford Smith
香瓜离线中   引用
 2007-10-21 16:23  #14
管理员
 
加入日期: 2004-04-25
帖子: 4429
现金: 40 盾
香瓜 荣获 2005-06 Fantasy NBA ChinaSpurs 联赛第13名
回复: John Hollinger 对每个球员的分析和预测

#11 Jacque Vaughn | PG
Spurs Roster:

<a target=Jacque Vaughn" onerror="function anonymous()
{
loadDefaultHS('HeadShot');
}" src="http://assets.espn.go.com/i/nba/profiles/players/65x90/3195.jpg" width="65" />
Born: February 11, 1975
Los Angeles, CA
Height: 6-1
Weight: 190 lbs.
Age: 32
Pos: PG
College: Kansas
Drafted: 1997, 1st round, 27th pick by Jazz
2008 Salary: $1,219,590
FANTASY
Percent Owned (Week +/-):
NBA: 0.0% (0.0%)
Avg. Draft Position:
NBA: 0.0
PPG 3 | APG 2 | SPG 0.4

Hollinger Player Profile | Stats Key
SEASONFG%FT%P/40R/40A/40TS%AstTOUsgRebPER
2002-03.448.77611.22.85.550.829.212.214.84.010.56
2003-04.386.7798.53.76.144.033.314.314.25.28.02
2004-05.449.83510.63.03.851.124.011.013.74.68.91
2005-06.437.7288.93.04.048.827.011.412.34.37.57
2006-07.425.75410.13.66.949.135.710.915.15.411.00
2007-08 (projected).404.6758.42.85.145.3630.9210.6912.09.328.30

2006-07 season: Vaughn became an unlikely contributor to a championship cause when Beno Udrih's struggles allowed him to take over the backup point guard job. Despite coming off three straight seasons with single-digit PERs, Vaughn actually performed reasonably well for a backup point guard.

The Spurs got much more out of him offensively because he made more jumpers. Vaughn doesn't have 3-point range, but did hit 46.6 percent of his long 2-pointers, so the opponent at least had to respect his 17-footer. However, he was terrible around the basket. Vaughn only made 38.9 percent of his shots in the immediate basket area -- if he'd had enough attempts it would have easily been the worst rate in the league.

Scouting report: A smart player with a rep as a good clubhouse guy, Vaughn is a pure point guard who is a good distributor and does a solid job at the defensive end. However, his limitations as a shooter and a scorer have conspired to make him a No. 2 or No. 3 point guard his whole career. The one shot he seems able to make consistently is a 17-footer from the corner.

Defensively, one problem is that he tends to pick up fouls trying to pressure the ball. This makes it difficult to play him when the opponent is in the bonus, because he'll foul somebody 60 feet from the basket and hand them two points.

2007-08 outlook: Vaughn re-signed with the Spurs over the summer and again will battle with Udrih for the right to back up Tony Parker. As long as Vaughn provides the smidgen of offense he gave a year ago, his defense should allow him to keep the upper hand. However, this is far from a given. Vaughn was a train wreck on offense in each of the three previous seasons, and he's 32 years old. It's quite possible that last season was the apex, and that now begins a fairly steep descent.


Most similar at age: Darnell Valentine
香瓜离线中   引用
 2007-10-21 16:24  #15
管理员
 
加入日期: 2004-04-25
帖子: 4429
现金: 40 盾
香瓜 荣获 2005-06 Fantasy NBA ChinaSpurs 联赛第13名
回复: John Hollinger 对每个球员的分析和预测

#33 Marcus Williams | F
Spurs Roster:

Marcus Williams
Born: November 18, 1986
Seattle, WA
Height: 6-7
Weight: 205 lbs.
Age: 20
Pos: F
College: Arizona
FANTASY
Percent Owned (Week +/-):
NBA: 0.0% (0.0%)
Avg. Draft Position:
NBA: UD

Hollinger Player Profile | Stats Key
SEASONFG%FT%P/40R/40A/40TS%AstTOUsgRebPER
No projected stats available for this player.

2007-08 outlook: The Spurs' second-round draft pick out of Arizona takes over for James White as the guy the Spurs hope will succeed their aging cadre of wing players. He wasn't a bad second-round gamble considering he's only 20 and showed signs of real talent at Arizona, with a smooth shooting stroke being the most prominent skill. But questions persist about his attitude and professionalism, which could make him an odd fit with San Antonio's merry bunch. He's also rail thin and will need to hit the weights.
香瓜离线中   引用
 


主题工具

发帖规则
不可以发表新主题
不可以回复主题
不可以上传附件
不可以编辑您的帖子

vB 代码开启
[IMG]代码开启
HTML代码开启
论坛跳转



马刺中文网 - 始于2004年 - 网站地图 - Go Spurs Go!